By
FARAH HALIME in the New York Times
Published: November 2, 2011
TUNIS — Last month, as Tunisia became the first Arab country
to elect an assembly to rewrite the rules of its political system, and the
death of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi consolidated regime change in Libya, Tunisian businesspeople were
positioning themselves for a new era of economic relations between the two
countries.
The hope is that
the overthrow of the two dictatorships will lead to more bilateral trade
opportunities, liberalized economic practices, increased transparency and
better regulation, bolstering growth in both countries.
“The big chance of
Libya going in the right direction will also be a big chance for the region,”
said Mohsen Zerelli, an executive at Groupe Mabrouk, a large conglomerate
involved in the retailing, banking and telecommunications industries. “It will
also start a new type of economic process and relationships in the region and
North Africa.”
Under Colonel
Qaddafi and the former Tunisian president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, “operators
in North African countries never started that economic relationship with each
other; each looked at business from a personal point of view,” Mr. Zerelli
said. “Now governments will take into consideration the real interest of the
people.”
Groupe Mabrouk,
preparing to “restart” business after months of uncertainty, was paying
particular attention to Libyan opportunities, he said.
Its proximity,
past trade relations and immediate reconstruction needs make Libya an obvious
target for Tunisian business. Although the country is rich in oil, most of its
assets have been frozen, its economy has ground to a halt, and unemployment is
rife.
Libya needs help,
and for many Tunisians, providing that help is also the solution to Tunisia’s
own growth and job creation challenges, in a country with an unemployment rate
estimated by the International Monetary Fund at 13 percent last year.
Moncef
Cheikhrouhou, a Tunisian economist and member of the secular Progressive
Democratic Party, which trailed the Islamic party Ennahda in the elections,
said that as many as 250,000 Tunisians could find work in Libya’s service and
tertiary sectors.
Both countries
could grow faster by strengthening their economic ties, added Mr. Cheikhrouhou,
who was widely seen as a possible future finance or economy minister before the
elections.
“If the countries
of the Maghreb open their borders,” he said, “they could get another one to two
percentage points on top of their ordinary growth.”
The fall of Mr.
Ben Ali in January led to revolts in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain but
crushed Tunisia’s own economy, wiping at least $2 billion from its estimated
gross domestic product in the first month of the revolution, Mr. Cheikhrouhou
said.
Mr. Ben Ali and
his family enriched themselves by acquiring assets from the state at low prices
and luring overseas investors to do business with them, effectively locking out
competitors.
Since his ouster,
the interim government has seized about 100 companies that his family
controlled, in a bid to rebuild a broadly based, more open and competitive
economy. Seized companies have included some of the largest in the country,
like Orange Tunisie and Banque de Tunisie.
Despite its
corrupt and repressive government, Mr. Ben Ali’s Tunisia was well regarded by
foreign investors, with a large, well-educated middle class and a liberal
social system. Growth of gross domestic product averaged 5 percent a year in
the decade before the 2008 financial crisis, according to I.M.F. figures. But
it quickly slid into recession when the revolution wiped out tourism and normal
business activity at the start of this year.
Before this year,
trade agreements between Tunisia and Libya helped to foster an average 9
percent annual growth rate in trade between the two countries, well above the 6
percent annual growth in world trade, a U.N. Comtrade 2010 report said.
But amid Libya’s
civil war and international sanctions against Colonel Qaddafi’s government,
much of that trade ground to a halt, a breakdown that contributed significantly
to Tunisia’s own economic dislocation.
Still, some
sectors of the Tunisian economy have been less damaged than others: the health
industry in particular has been a gainer.
Medical tourism
has long been an important business, accounting for up to 5 percent of
Tunisia’s services exports and 24 percent of turnover in the country’s private
clinics, according to research from the African Development Bank.
During the civil
war, hundreds of thousands of Libyans crossed the border to be treated for
injuries sustained from cross-fire between rebel forces and Qaddafi loyalists.
Now clinics across
Tunisia are brimming with Libyan patients paying thousands of dollars for
treatment.
Hichem
Bouchamaoui, chairman of Al Majd, a family holding company with interests in
Tunisian real estate and health care, said the company’s health clinic in the
center of Tunis was at full capacity, treating Libyan patients.
“Tunisia is
working for two countries now,” Mr. Bouchamaoui said. “We were always popular
with the Libyans for health treatment, but this is different. Right now we’re
100 percent full; I have no beds because half of them are taken up by Libyans.”
Libya’s interim
government, the Transitional National Council, has been paying the health care
fees of Libyan patients as long as they can prove they were wounded in
fighting, he said. Fees range from $1,000 to $25,000 for amputees or those with
serious injuries.
Like many
businesspeople in Tunisia, he expects the country to invest huge amounts of
cash in Libya, as it rebuilds infrastructure and banking systems and reinstates
services industries.
Délice, the
largest dairy company by market share in Tunisia, and a partner of Danone, has
already begun negotiations to open an office in Libya.
“The reconstruction of Libya
will take about 200,000 to 300,000 employees,” said Délice’s general manager,
Boubaker Mehri. “How can we fit into that? We must find an approach on how
Tunisia will benefit from this revolution
